CONVECTIVE FORECAST
VALID Sat 31 Dec 09:00 - Sun 01 Dec 06:00 2006 (UTC)
ISSUED: 31 Dec 09:07 (UTC)
FORECASTER: DAHL

SYNOPSIS

Vort max at W periphery of upper low approaching the North Sea/British Isles ... will continue to dig southeastwards ... reaching the NW Mediterranean Sea early Sunday morning. Cellular convection near the thermal trough axis is deepening as the trough amplifies ... and isolated lightning strikes may occur especially over S England and the Channel region. Though gusty winds will likely be associated with this activity ... organized severe threat seems to be rather low. Also ... lightning should remain too isolated for a TSTM area. Otherwise ... NMM hints at development of weak instability over the N Mediterranean along/ahead of the cold front associated with the digging trough. Latest soundings indicate that the air mass is quite stable however ... and any lightning activity should be too isolated to warrant a TSTM forecast.

DISCUSSION

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